Lutherans Rule Christmas!

One of my favorite things about Christmas day is the afternoon entertainment on public television, a procession of musical programs by Lutheran Colleges - St. Olaf's, Luther, and Concordia - although it wouldn't be fair not to mention the Mormon Tabernacle Choir's awesome program during the same time slot.

I love to sing, and I sing bass in our church choir. The Eastman School of Music is in Rochester, so I have year-long opportunities to indulge in hearing excellent choral, orchestral, and instrumental music. That's why I'm so impressed by these three Lutheran colleges; their music "competes" at an extremely high level, and they're just "kids". Musically, they are pro's.

I hear voices in these choirs that could audition successfully at Eastman (or Julliard). But they are not at Eastman or Julliard, they are at St. Olaf's, Luther, or Concordia. Student of practical economics that I am, I conclude there is something about these places that many high quality musicians value over the prestige and excellence of a top-rung school like Eastman.

That high value "something" may be not having to practice roughly seven hours every day, as Eastman kids do. But it's more likely that the nurturing cultural and spiritual element, and the tradition of these colleges is what draws them. I don't know for sure, but I'd also be willing to bet that many of these students have had generations of their family graduating from these institutions. A tradition of excellence breeds excellence.

So thank you, Lutherans, for being so serious about making beautiful music. I suppose it may emanate from the German origin of Lutheranism - the Germans love music and have always put great emphasis on precision and clarity. It's too bad these colleges don't have programs for all the other holidays - I'd watch and listen.

At this time of year I'm reminded that Martin Luther wrote the famous carol, "Away in a Manger", setting the tone for his followers. Martin, you are probably looking down on this Christmas with satisfaction, hearing the angel choirs of the Lutheran colleges you inspired!

(Postscript 12/27/08 - A loyal reader has pointed out that the attribution of "Away in a Manger" to Martin Luther is incorrect. The song was attributed to him 400 years after his birth as a way of according him some additional glory. However, Luther did write a number of carols - just not this one. Truth must prevail!)

"Global Warming" Suspended in Rochester, NY!

Just when we Rochesterians were well on our way to the least snowy Oct/Nov/Dec in many years, Mother Nature decided to remind us about who is really in charge. So, I was forced to make the difficult transtion from a weekend in San Diego to a weekend at the southern reaches of the north pole, currently in Rochester.



It's times like this when I bow down and praise the guy who invented the snow blower! It truly saves a person from hours of back-breaking labor and the agony that follows.

On the other hand, the snow is beautiful and I don't mind the cold. As far as I know, the awful roads didn't cause any fatalities - only lots of fender-benders. We had nine calls at Pittsford Ambulance, and thankfully no major heart attacks when our ambulances were having much difficulty fighting through clogged traffic.

The skiiers are in heaven. You see, God provides for all of us at different times! Merry Christmas!

A New Man

If you've read me for awhile, you know about the angst I felt when my #1 grandson enlisted in the Marines. Although he had excellent high school grades and test scores, he just couldn't seem to take the next step. Each time he moved that right foot toward a new opportunity, he soon pulled it back. His life was in a holding pattern for an entire year - and then he announced he'd enlisted and intended to be a combat soldier. Surprise, surprise!

Times have changed since I was a soldier. Now, the Marines make you wait for a few months before you report for duty. In the intervening period they expect you to attend pre-reporting training sessions with your recruiter and others. They expect you to get into shape. They give you some idea of what being "screamed at" is like. Then you jump into the real fire. Michael reported about 12 weeks ago to the Marine training base in San Diego, and his transformation began abruptly - no doubt with someone yelling unintelligible words in his face and calling for pushups at every turn.

Mike's first letter, after three weeks there, opened "I hate boot camp!" The second letter, after six weeks there, opened "I love boot camp!" He miraculously recovered from a bout with pnuemonia, earned an expert marksman badge, and finally completed the grueling three-day exercise aptly named "The Crucible". Then came graduation day, which I attended last weekend.

Mike is a new man. He stands tall rather than slouching. He looks you in the eye when he talks to you. He speaks with confidence. His skinny frame is 15 pounds heavier than it was 12 weeks ago in spite of the pneumonia and constant exercise (they put him on double rations for awhile). He's still "young", but a very different kind of young. In the picture, you can see the implacable Marine expression on his face. I like that a lot.

After two weeks of leave and two weeks of assisting a recruiter, Mike will be back to Camp Pendleton for nine weeks of infantry combat training. He'll come out of that a trained warrior, although he will have no idea of what real combat entails. That may come later, and if so, he'll find out that there's no glory in it. It's chaos, fear, suffering, and an aftermath that goes on and on. Hopefully, he'll be able to get through whatever comes.

In the meantime, Marine boot camp graduation is a major production. These Marines look sharper and drill sharper than any of the services. You can sense the individual and group pride that will help them succeed in the small unit combat role they perform. Mike and 450 others became "new men" last weekend, courtesy of the United States Marines.

Power and Greed, II

A few days ago I wrote about a small group of people whose raison d'etre is accumulating power and wealth by whatever means they can get away with. They are smart, and they generally weigh their decisions carefully, but they are also ruthless. Most of us have never been close enough to people like this to really understand the depth of their lack of principle; they are sociopaths, and they know how to fit into society and manipulate people and organizations to achieve their ends. They are responsible for a lot of the pain in the world.

Since I wrote those words, three more people who seem to meet this description have been exposed. Illinois governor Blagojevich ran on an anti-corruption platform but is now accused of attempting to sell whatever an appointment to the U.S. Senate. Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of NASDAQ, has been arrested for masterminding a Ponzi scheme that may have cost investors a mind-boggling $50 billion. Marc Dreier, a well-know New York City attorney, has been arrested for allegedly defrauding several hedge funds of up to $380 million. They are three very smart and capable people who have likely caused incredible chaos by taking huge risks to accumulate power and wealth.

During the past week I've heard several financial experts claim that regulation can't keep up with the evil creativity of those who are driven to "succeed" at whatever cost. They may be right. But, why aren't the big-time con artists exposed more quickly? I suspect these people succeed largely because their "customers" fail to exercise due diligence when doing business with them. Their personal magnetism or pedigree is such that their proposals are not checked out appropriately for transations of the magnitude they deal in. And, they are not afraid to intimidate or ridicule people who may obstruct their plans. Consequently, one successful fraud serves as the base for the next, by increasing the perpetrator's power and wealth.

You have probably heard the word "transparency" often, lately. It means that the purposes and details of agreements or transactions should be completely disclosed to those who are affected by them. Government officials and corporate managements, in particular, are being encouraged to be more "transparent" because they can often gain unfairly by keeping their purposes and transaction details secret. In some instances, such as in the selection of an appointed senator or the awarding of a major contract, transparency before the act is impractical but a requirement to keep detailed records and submit to post-review may provide adequate oversight.

The primary objection to transparency is that it "slows the process" by creating unnecessary work before and after transactions. In my view, this argument usually comes from prime movers who hate the idea that outsiders would have some power over them. We should be sceptical. Hampering those who might sell senate seats, bilk people out of $50 billion or $380 million, or invest a bank's capital in ultra-risky morgages seems more reasonable every day.

Greetings from San Diego!

The palm trees are swaying gently in the wind. The wind feels warm to me, but others here are wearing light jackets. The early morning clouds and rising sun make for a beautiful sky. It's just another balmy day in San Diego, where I've come to witness my #1 grandson's graduation from Marine boot camp.

Michael gained fifteen pounds, learned how to stand up straight and sit up straight, and how to look you in the eye when he talks to you. He's quite a different young man than he was eleven weeks ago, as I expected. All the young graduates look alert and sharp, very different than their civilian counterparts at this age. Many, many years of Marine experience in transforming kids into obedient soldiers is obviously effective.

I'm here with my #1 son, Michael's father. He's proud of Michael, although one year ago he wouldn't have guessed he'd be here to witness this kind of event. Kids do what kids do, and parents must stand aside and love them as they work out their lives. I think this experience will probably work out very well for Michael, adding some self dicipline and drive to his high intelligence. Time will tell.

Seeing and conversing with the Marine officers and sergeants takes me back to my youth in the 101st Airborne Division. These men are bright and motivated, and very sharp. They are more than a match for typical civilians in their age group. We Americans are fortunate to have armed forces filled with men and women of such quality.

Keep you posted!

Power and Greed

Here we are, hoping the government can somehow pull us out of this deep recession. We're so concerned about the present and the future, we don't think much about the recent past. It's the past, after all. But I've been thinking about how we got to this sorry state, and the answer is "power and greed". Nothing new. Over history, this combination of human drivers has caused more misery than the bubonic plague.

There are some people who are wired differently than most, or they get rewired through their life experiences. They love the feeling of control over others, and they will do anything they can get away with to establish that control. They also love the material trappings of success. The old saw about "What separates the men from the boys is the cost of their toys" is their mantra. These are the people who are primarily responsible for our economy being in tatters.

Looking back at the American financial system, we see a complex matrix of "credit default swaps", "hedge funds", and "nothing-down, no-credit-check, adjustable rate mortgages". Lots of these transactions had little more substance than air, or were simply another way to gamble. Yet the people who invented them, or approved them, or marketed them, or failed to regulate them, were generally very smart people. They knew better; they understood the potential for disaster if the value of these transactions reached a critical mass. So, why did they proceed? Simple. Power and greed. The short term success they achieved gave them great influence, and their large profits enabled plenty of flashy homes and toys. They acted rationally, for them.

The "free-market" zealots just don't understand the risk this small group of talented people presents. Although capitalism seems to be the best way we currently know to achieve innovation and productivity, unfettered capitalism provides the "power and greed" crowd with all the room they need to produce chaos. These people are willing to cross the lines of generally acceptable behavior if they feel they can gain an advantage by doing so. In a worst case scenario, you get a Hitler. In a more typical case, you get the guys who pushed Washington Mutual and Lehman Brothers off the cliff. If you were generous, you'd call them "unprincipled".

I've been up close and personal with members of this crowd. I've seen them make alliances with others of like mind in a large corporation. When they achieved the critical mass they needed, they simply broke the rules they all understood in order to cash in. To add insult to injury, they rigged their company's liablility insurance so that it had to pay the fines they ultimately got charged by regulators. All of them are mighty comfortable right now, their reputations ruined but their fortunes intact. They won the game.

When you hear someone say "Regulation stifles innovation", you can safely respond that "Lack of regulation creates human disasters". The trick with regulation is to get the level right. But, never forget, the "power and greed" crowd is always lurking close by, just waiting to find the chinks in the laws and rules that we depend on to make our society fairly predictable. Better to err on the side of caution.

I Can't Get Her Out of My Mind

Working on the ambulance , as I do for over 100 hours each month, is the most rewarding activity that I'm involved in. I get back much more than I give.

These times are relatively tough. The news of my town, the country, and the world is disheartening. Problems, problems, problems. My IRA has taken a nosedive, too. I need some Christmas cheer, and the ambulance provides it.

Nothing is so elevating as meeting someone who really has it tough and is somehow staying positive. I met a lady the other day who has pretty much done this, although I expect some days are harder than others.

She had a great career in a big city until, one day in her late twenties, a freak illness almost killed her. For the past thirty years following her slow awakening from a coma, she's been coping with the aftermath. Operation after operation, disfiguring her and making her every day another chance at experiencing a sudden death. Can you imagine living like this?

I saw how her nurse hugged her tenderly when she released her to me for another trip to the hospital. As we chatted on the way and in the hospital triage area, she told me how grateful she was to her long-ago employer for giving her back her job after a year and half away from work. She smiled when she related to me that a female friend of hers was a WWII veteran. She lit up when I complimented her on a beautiful ring she was wearing, and she told me the story of when she got it. She was living in the moment, although she knew that she faced a lot of poking, prodding and deliberating with doctors over what to do with her today.

People like her shape my way of dealing with life's ups and downs. Nothing is guaranteed. There are far worse things than a fading IRA. At the end of the day, survival and the chance to experience a joyful moment, even in the midst of troubling uncertainty, is the core of what life is about. And, as a believer, I have hope even if the worst comes to pass.

Thank you, sweet lady, for making my day!

I "Brined" the Turkey!

The older I get, the more things I find I don't know. Three days ago, while perusing one of my favorite liberal blogs, I found a glowing review of the San Francisco Chronicle's receipe for brining a turkey. After racing to the supermarket for a few ingredients, I did the following in less than 30 minutes:

Put 2.5 gallons of water into the inmost of two large, doubled garbage bags that were placed inside a plastic cooler.

Into the water I put 2 cups of Kosher salt, one cup of sugar, a clove of garlic (all peeled sections), a whole bunch of fresh thyme, 5 crushed juniper berries, and 4 crushed allspice nuggets. I thrashed it all around for a couple of minutes to mix it up.

Into the bag went the turkey, about 5 p.m. the night before Thanksgiving Day. I tied the top of the plastic bags tightly, put the top on the cooler and let it all sit until 10 a.m. on Thanksgiving morning. Then I took out the turkey, dried it, and tossed out the brine mix.

The 20 pound turkey roasted for about 3.5 hours at 350 degrees (until the thigh meat was 165 degrees). No stuffing allowed!

Best turkey we ever ate, by a mile! White meat firm, moist, and flavorful, dark meat delicious! This was the first time I remember the turkey being the food sensation of Thanksgiving.

It's no wonder the Chronicle found this receipe the best of the 28 that they tested. Bon appetite!

Auto Bailout, Part 2

The auto bailout controversy continues to fester. Congress tossed the auto executives out earlier this week. Lobbyists and other advocates and adversaries are out in full force in the media. Information and misinformation abounds! What's the real story?

Well, I'm still hard-hearted. I have no sympathy for the executives, but I have less sympathy for the rank and file exempt employees and the union guys. I've been close to the industry just once in my life, but that was enough to get the ugly picture. Everyone involved in the big three has been complicit in an outrageous wage/price inflation that cannot stand if the auto industry is to survive. They all have to give something up - wages, pensions, health care, all of it. They are sadly out of line.

Much has been made by some commentators of the inaccuracy of the $70/hour or more that's been quoted as the average cost of a union worker. It's true that that number represents the per-worker cost of all salaries, benefits, and pension contributions for both current workers and retirees. The average worker makes much less, actually about $30/hour in wages, plus health care and statutory benefits. Pension contributions go on top of that, making the average fully-loaded cost of an average current union member a bit less than $50/hour. That's crazy. At $30/hour, the gross pay averages $62,400 annually. Fully loaded, the per-worker cost is almost $100,000 each year for a high school graduate who does manual labor. Add another $20/hour to take care of retired worker pensions and health care benefits, and you get the $70/hour that I started with. A union auto worker has a great job. Too great, in fact. And that also goes for all the exempt employees whose salary packages have been pegged to the union contract for 50 years. They're all overpaid.

I have a son who teaches eighth grade math in the combat zone of Phoenix. He's a top teacher, and he has a masters degree and five years experience. He makes less than $40,000 and he gets health care and a pension contribution. His day starts early and ends late, and he has a world of requirements to worry about. His job is far more difficult than an auto worker's job, but he makes much less. He loves what he does, at age 46 and after enduring the strain of several career changes. Before 9-11 he made six figures and drove a nice BMW, but the office he headed closed due to the terrorist attack and the recession that followed. So, he got a new education and adjusted to another lifestyle. That's what some people do, and that's one reason why I have little sympathy for the auto industry employees.

Some time ago I posted about military pay. I mentioned that an Army captain does a lot better than I did when I was an officer. Today that captain with a college degree and lots more training and tons of responsibility makes a base pay of $56,664. He'll also get on-base housing for free, or a housing allowance worth more than $12,000 each year. So, this guy makes just a little more than an average union auto worker, but he may have to lead 120 guys into mortal combat and likely be away from his family for more than a year at a time on several occasions. You think that captain feels sorry for Joe wrench-turner?

Don't get me wrong. I don't hate Joe wrench-turner, and I think he deserves to have a decent life. What's happened, though, is that for many years his unions have been extorting the big three auto companies and have had no concern whatsoever for the long term viability of the companies they work for. Those chickens have now come home to roost. Some auto workers sit around at off-site facilities and get paid for doing nothing. Nutty labor rules let some workers finish their "quota" in a few hours and then sit around for the rest of the workday. Featherbedding abounds. The cars they make are substandard compared to competition, partly because the big three can't compete on price if they put comparable value into their cars in addition to their high labor costs. Unless this entire employee cost base is rationalized, these companies are doomed to fail.

Here's the big question. Will the participants in this failed industry all get together and decide to take the hit? Are they willing to give up some pay and benefits to make their companies competitive? So far, I've seen not a single movement in this direction. They want life as it is today, and that's it. My response is, shut'em down and start over. Sorry, but they had their chance to do the right thing.

Deer Season Opens Tomorrow!

Attention all deer! Southern New York's deer hunting season opens at sunrise, Saturday, November 15, 2008. Now is the time to get your affairs in order, 'cause my hunting buddies and I are coming after you!

Opening day is perhaps my favorite day of the year. Even with all the modern gizmo's that hunters now use, stalking a large, fast, smart animal in its native habitat is still a challenging activity. It involves sitting for hours; slogging through mud; walking through cornfields over my head; crossing creeks; walking slowly and stealthily; keeping the snow off my glasses; taking good aim with stiff fingers; field-dressing the animal; and, finally, dragging a heavy carcass back to the van. In one form or another, men have been doing these things for eons. Hunting connects me to history in a very basic way.

I always look forward to performing the other rituals of hunting: assembling the clothing, boots, firearms, ammo, and snacks; sharpening the Buck knife; charging the radio; and, getting up very early in the morning. And, without fail, checking my license and making sure the bores of my weapons are clear.

We four gather near the woods at 5:45 a.m. to say "hello" for the first time since last December. We pull on our tall rubber boots. We drink coffee from our thermos and maybe eat a donut even though we already ate breakfast at home. We check our radio's and confirm our starting positions. At 6:15 we walk out, and by 6:25 we're in position, waiting quietly for the sun to rise and our quarry to, perhaps, blunder into our sights.

When the sunset finally comes, I'll be tired. I'll have walked several miles wearing heavy clothing and boots and carrying a weapon. I may have helped drag a few deer to a road. We'll walk cross country back to our starting place, have a cold beer, and talk about the next hunting day. Some of us will then transport their deer to the processor. My first deer is donated to Foodlink, where it will make lots of meals for those who have a lot less than I. Wish me luck!

Auto Industry Bail-Out?

Our government has already committed $25 billion to the automakers to help them re-tool for the next generation of automobiles. Now, these same companies are coming back to Washington, this time asking for cash to keep them from going under in 2009. I say, "Wait a minute, here! Get your house in order first."

For all too long Detroit has been making inferior cars while paying its employees overly generous wages, benefits, and pensions. (Why should an assembly line worker with a high school diploma make as much or more than a teacher with a masters degree?) Recently some changes have been made in increasing auto workers contributions to their medical plan, but that should be just the start of a major adjustment in auto industry compensation. Until the companies and the UAW can agree on that, I would reject any bailout. We don't need a "bailed-out" auto industry that is still incapable of competing with foreign competition on price.

I don't hate the guys who design and build cars in Detroit. It's just that they haven't made the adjustment to competing in a world economy. Their cost structure has to be competitive in order for them to survive over the long term. If, to incent change, Washington has to threaten the companies and their pension plans by letting them go the brink of collapse, so be it. If we have a simple bail-out, the next one won't be far behind.

The fact is, if U.S. auto companies are competitive, there will be plenty of jobs there. They just won't be quite as cushy as they've been for the past 50 years.

Happy and Sad

Obama won! I'm happy. America voted for a smart, decent, successful family man who just happened to be (in his own words) a mutt. Unfortunately, white America voted for the other guy and his breathtakingly inept sidekick, complemented by Joe the Plumber. This election was a watershed, but the demographics of the win tell me that America has a long way to go. That makes me sad.

Bush has one foot out the door, and those who call themselves republicans (desecrating a proud name) have less influence in congress. I'm happy. Unfortunately, eight years of benighted rule have come to a crashing conclusion. The only good thing is that the crash happened on their watch, but it is a crash par excellance! America and the world are in for a tough time because employment is fueled by spending, and there will be a lot less of that for a good while. I'm sad, but not as sad as those millions who will fall from "barely making it" to a life of despair. Remember when we trusted government to regulate and protect our economy?

The price of oil has dropped precipitously due to the economic slowdown, so it costs less to fill up my van. I'm happy. But, the falling price of oil makes alternative energy sources expensive again. Will we be so shortsighted as to slow down our conversion to green energy? If so, I'll be sad.

World leaders are circling the wagons to come up with a joint economic recovery plan. I'm happy. But, hard times have often caused countries to combat internal distress by conjuring a foreign enemy. Sadly, wars are excellent depression-fighters unless your country is unlucky enough to be on the losing side.

My four daily workplaces (Cameron Community Ministries, Pittsford Volunteer Ambulance, Christ Clarion Presbyterian Church, and Lake Avenue Baptist Church) make me happy because they are filled with optimistic people who try to love their neighbors as themselves. The down economy is going to affect them like it affects everything else. I'm sad.

In times like this one is drawn to consider the long view. Things go up, things go down, things go up. Has the earth shrunk enough that all of us people will be motivated to join hands and work out some new ways to manage how we live on it? It's getting to be that time, and I'd love to see it happen before I die.

A New "New Deal"?

I heard a piece on NPR today that described Franklin D. Roosevelt's run against Hoover in 1932. Public sentiment was so sour on republicans that virtually anyone calling himself (not herself) a democrat would have been a shoo-in for election. Consequently, Roosevelt didn't have to outline much in the way of his policy preferences during the campaign. In fact, the term "New Deal" was coined in his very last speech and the contents of the "deal" were not specified. Could this be the Obama strategy? We've not heard much detail from him, either.

So, what have we heard from Obama? His health care plan...his education plan...his energy plan...his economic plan. All pretty simple, plain vanilla, clearly "not Bush's failed plan". But the devil really is in the details. Will Obama come out slugging, democrat congress in tow, with some big ideas? Maybe. Maybe there will be a new "New Deal". But what will it be?

As the Trail Diary has been bemoaning for a long time, the United States of America is facing some really major challenges. We've got structural issues of immense proportions - giant unfunded liabilities, millions of poorly educated younger adults and children, an aging population with expectations of unlimited health care, and billions of dollars daily being sent overseas to purchase stuff we burn up. And now, horror of horrors, we need to address these issues in the midst of an economic calamity. Poor Obama!

Perhaps now is the time to turn over some really big stones, to put the cards on the table for America to look at and choose. There is no win, win, win, win solution. We're facing the age-old problem of resource allocation, guns or butter. Perhaps there are a few magic bullets, like priming the economy by building a new energy infrastructure or mobilizing an army of unemployed oldsters to tutor the young. But, there must be some big give-ups, too. And that's the rub.

Here are a few questions for your consideration. Can some public pensions and benefits be almost as outrageous as outsize Wall Street salaries? Should wealthy people get hefty medical and social security benefits? Is it really appropriate to warehouse oldsters with severe Alzheimers or dementia, treat their every medical condition with modern medicine, and watch them sit, listless and semi-comatose, for years until something big finally kills them? Should managers of large public companies be compensated like owners, even though they own little of the firms they manage? Are the laws covering personal injury and corporate liability overly tilted toward the plaintiffs, many of whom failed to exercise good judgement?

I'm hoping Obama wins "big-time", but I'm expecting him to live up to his promises for change. I want change that goes past shoveling out goodies to the poor and middle class, because doing only those things will bankrupt our country. I want structural change that will benefit our country for a century. I want a president who has the guts to lay it out, step by step, and push change through, problem by problem. If Obama can do that, he'll go on the same pedestal as Washington, Lincoln, and Roosevelt II. Go for it, Barack!

Did McCain Throw in the Towel?

Things have gone so badly lately for the McCain campaign that I can't but help wonder if the choice of Sarah Palin was the first sign that McCain wanted to lose this election and was going to make sure he did. Did the rigors of the campaign tell his inner muse that being president was maybe not the best idea after all? Or is he just that dumb? I don't think so.

It's not only Palin. What about the plan for the government to buy people's mortgages and then refinance them at a lesser amount and a lower interest rate? McCain expects republicans to accept this totally socialistic idea that is so over-the-top that even Obama rejects it out of hand? Not. It's just another way to make sure this election is not close.

Granted, with the economy in the tank and going south and the wars unresolved, it's hard for a republican to argue that the party deserves much support in 2008. But, with a top-flight vice president, some tough conservative rhetoric, and a few good economic planks, McCain might have had had a fighting chance to win. Seems like he took care of that problem...